I predicted the Vols would go 8-4 this season – the same regular-season mark as last year.
They’ll score one upset and get upset on the road.
Here is my game-by-game forecast.
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FURMAN
Tennessee coach Josh Heupel has scored over 50 points against 12 non-conference opponents in five seasons. He’s topped 60 points six times and 70 points twice.
This might not be one of those 50-point games, considering UT’s quarterback situation. Then again, Furman ranked 91st in the nation in scoring defense last year and surrendered 52 points to Mercer and Western Carolina.
Look for quarterback Faizon Brandon to have a sparkling debut, DeSean Bishop to have a field day and the defense to impress in the opener for defensive coordinator Jim Knowles.
Furman (6-6 last year) will start well-traveled Jake Garcia at quarterback. Garcia signed as a four-star recruit at Miami in 2021. Two years later, he transferred to Missouri, then to East Carolina in 2024. Last season, he was at Michigan and made one appearance.
Score: Tennessee 51-10.
At GEORGIA TECH
Tech went 9-4 last year with wins over Clemson and ACC champion Duke. But the Yellow Jackets will be without star quarterback Haynes King, who had 2,967 yards passing and 953 yards rushing.
Indiana transfer Alberto Mendoza, younger brother of the Heisman Trophy winner last year, has won the job. But can he win games? He is mobile and an accurate passer.
At running back, Tech goes from Jamal Haynes to Michigan transfer Justice Haynes, one of the top gets in the transfer portal. He rushed for 857 yards in seven games for the Wolverines.
Tech, which opens the season hosting Colorado, and Tennessee have played just once since 1987, which was the last time UT played at Grant Field.
Score: Tennessee 24-20
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KENNESAW STATE
The Owls won Conference-USA under first-year coach by Jerry Mack, former UT running backs coach. The 10-4 record came after a 2-10 season. That’s Mack’s fourth conference title in five years as a head coach.
Kennesaw State had a solid offense last year, averaging 243 passing yards and 26.7 points per game. But the defense gave up 25.5 points per game and 403.6 yards.
The Owls lost all-C-USA quarterback Amari Odom to Syracue, but landed Syracuse (and former LSU) QB Rickie Collins Jr. in the portal. The Owls lost four other top offensive players to power-4 teams.
Kennesaw State lost 10-9 to Wake Forest last year but don’t expect a close encounter in Knoxville.
Score: Tennessee 47-17
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TEXAS
Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning will play in the house once occupied by his record-breaking uncle, Peyton. There won’t be a more compelling story line in Week Four.
Arch isn’t the pure pocket passer that Peyton was. Arch is much more mobile, like his grandfather, Archie. And after a rugged start last season, he blossomed into one of the nation’s top quarterbacks, which is why he’s considered a Heisman Trophy candidate this season.
Arch also has a strong supporting cast, led by Auburn transfer receiver Cam Coleman and running back transfers Hollywood Smothers and Raleek Brown.
Tennessee will counter with an inexperienced quarterback. Brandon might be as physically gifted as Arch, but he lacks that all important game experience.
Score: Texas 27-20.
AUBURN
Tiger coach Alex Golesh was Tennessee’s offensive coordinator during the Vols record-breaking offensive season in 2022.
He inherits a program that has lost seven games five years in a row and hasn’t won more than six games since 2019.
The Tigers have had a quarterback issue for years. Golesh solved that by bringing with him from South Florida Byrum Brown, one of 12 quarterbacks last year to pass for over 3,000 yards and rush for over 1,000 yards. And running back Jeremiah Cobb rushed for 969 yards last season.
The outcome will depend on whether UT’s defense can contain Brown.
Score: Tennessee 30-24
ARKANSAS
The Razorbacks went 2-10 last year and fired coach Sam Pittman. Late turnovers on potential game-winning drives in back-to-back games against Ole Miss and Memphis derailed the season.
Enter new coach Ryan Silverfield, who brought in 40 transfers and signed 19 freshman. Silverfield led Memphis to a 50-25 record in six seasons, including a 4-0 mark in bowl games as full-time head coach. He also spent six seasons as an NFL assistant.
The Hogs need quarterback KJ Jackson to be productive if they want to be competitive, and for the defense to improve on allowing at least 30 points in nine games.
Arkansas had won four in a row against UT until last year, and spoiled the Vols’ 1999 season with an upset in Fayetteville.
Score: Tennessee 27-20
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ALABAMA
Tennessee hopes to become the second team to beat Bama three times in a row at Neyland Stadium since 1960. The Vols won at home 52-49 in 2022 and 24-17 in 2024.
This could be a battle of true freshman quarterbacks: Keelon Russell at Bama and Brandon.
Crimson Tide coach Kalen DeBoer is under fire for losing four games two years in a row. While Bama won a College Football Playoff game last year, it lost 38-3 to Indiana in the Rose Bowl. That left a sour taste to the end of the season.
Alabama also struggled to run the ball, averaging just 104 rush yards per game last season and getting stymied by Georgia in the SEC title game. If the Tide can’t run, it puts more pressure on Russell.
Alabama’s defense has allowed less than 20 points per game four years in a row.
Score: Tennessee, 27-23
At SOUTH CARILINA
Williams-Brice has not been kind to Tennessee. In 2022, UT blew a chance at a CFP berth with a 63-38 loss in which quarterback Hendon Hooker suffered a season-ending knee injury. UT also lost six of the last eight games at Carolina with one win coming in overtime.
And in 1992, a Gamecocks upset led to coach John Majors getting fired.
Carolina is coming off a disastrous 4-8 season in which talented quarterback LaNorris Sellers went from a 66% completion mark to 61% and from a 674 rushing season to 270.
Gamecocks coach Shane Beamer seems to be at his best with his back against the wall. And if Sellers returns to form, USC might be the most improved team in the SEC.
Unfortunately for Tennessee, Heupel usually loses a road game he’s not supposed to.
Score: South Carolina, L 27-24
KENTUCKY
Last year, Wildcats QB Cutter Boley cut Tennessee to pieces in a 56-34 Vols win.
Boley is now in Arizona. And Kenny Mincey, the Notre Dame transfer, is now in Lexington.
Mincey isn’t the only new face at Kentucky. Last season’s 5-7 got Mark Stoops fired. Enter offensive guru Will Stein, who promises to produce more points but that doesn’t necessarily translate into more wins.
Stein, the former Oregon offensive coordinator, is the second-youngest coach at a Power 4 school.
Kentucky lost 23 players to the portal and picked up 29. But the Cats return just five starters.
Score: Tennessee 37-20
At TEXAS A&M
Since the Aggies joined the SEC in 2012, the Vols have played in College Station once (2016) in an overtime defeat. That’s the only game UT has played at A&M. Tennessee hosted A&M in 2020 and 2023, splitting those games.
Coach Mike Elko’s team went 11-2 last year and lost in the first round of the CFP to Miami. The Aggies are led by dynamic quarterback Marcel Reed, who passed for 3,169 yards and 25 touchdowns and ran for 493 yards and six scores. He needs to cut down on his 12 interceptions. He also had zero touchdown passes and four picks in his last two games, losses to Texas and Miami.
Reed’s supporting cast includes running back Rueben Owens Jr. (119 carries, 619 yards) and game-breaking receiver Mario Carver (59 catches for 917 yards and fur scores.)
A&M’s offense was good enough to score 41 points at Notre Dame and 49 at LSU. And the defense allowed just 309 yards per game.
Score: Texas A&M 27-13
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LSU
The Lane Train comes to Tennessee for the second time as a head coach. In 2021, UT fans littered the field late as the Rebels won 31-26.
Lane Kiffin comes to Neyland with a better roster than in 2021, a $50 million roster, led by over 40 transfers, including QB Sam Leavitt of Arizona State.
The Tigers’ defense was much improved in 2025, allowing just 19.8 points per game.
Kiffin has proven to be an outstanding head coach, having won 10 games in four of five seasons at Ole Miss. He’s also proven to be a lighting rod. The Vol Nation might be stocked with mustard bottles and golf balls, but it won’t be enough against Kiffin’s elite roster.
Score: LSU 30-23
At VANDERBILT
Vandy doesn’t have productive and provocative quarterback Diego Pavia, who racked up 41 points against the Vols last November en route to a 10-win season.
Vandy also scored wins over Virginia Tech, South Carolina, LSU and Auburn.
Coach Clark Lea believes he has built a program and last year’s results were not due to a one-man band. The Dores are out to prove last year wasn’t a fluke. But it’s hard to see Vandy averaging 38.5 points per game and giving up just 22.8.
And it’s hard to imagine the Dores coming close to matching last season’s record.
Score: Tennessee 34-24
