If you went 4-4 in the SEC last year, you finished in a two-way tie for eighth place.
If you went 4-4 in 2024, you were in tenth place.
But if you were 4-4 in 2023, you tied for sixth.
Going 4-4 isn’t the recommended record for success in the SEC. But you won’t have that anyone since the league has gone to a nine-game conference schedule.
What does that mean? It means one more SEC loss for every team. And it means the path to a College Football Playoff berth has been made that much harder.
It’s amazing that last year, seven SEC teams went 6-2 or better in league play.
It’s also amazing that six teams won 2 or fewer SEC games. That included Florida, South Carolina and Auburn – two of whom changed coaches.
And two of those teams figure to be among the most improved in the SEC.
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In Part Two of our series, we’ll take a look at Tennessee and seven other teams projected to win fewer than eight regular season games by BETMGM.
The Over/Under Win Total for Tennessee is 7.5
The Vols are coming off an 8-4 season, 4-4 in the SEC. The offense was prolific in the first quarter. The defense was atrocious in almost every quarter.
The Vols don’t figure to score as much this season because of inexperience at quarterback. Yet, UT is strong at receiver, running back, tight end and offensive line.
And the defense will be much improved under the watchful eye of defensive coordinator Jim Knowles.
UT’s home schedule is brutal: Texas, Auburn, Alabama, LSU. But this team has enough talent to match last year’s record.
Verdict: Over
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The Over/Under win total for Missouri, Auburn and South Carolina is 6.5
Missouri boasted the SEC rushing leader in Ahmad Hardy, a transfer from Louisiana Monroe. He could crack the 1,500-yard mark again if he’s fully recovered from an offseason gunshot wound.
Austin Simmons, the transfer from Ole Miss, takes over at quarterback for the more mobile Beau Pribula. Simmons is a pocket passer but doesn’t have many game-breaking targets.
Missouri’s defense was underrated last year. It allowed the same amount of points as Georgia (246).
I don’t see Missouri’s offense or defense being as good as it was last year. But I do see the Tigers having a similar 8-5 record.
Verdict: Over
Auburn (5-7) could be the most improved team in the SEC.
First-year coach Alex Golesh (former Tennessee offensive coordinator) takes over on the Plains with transfer quarterback Byrum Brown, who had over 3,000 yards passing and over 1,000 rushing at South Florida last year.
The Tigers also have an outstanding running back in Jeremiah Cobb (969 yards).
Auburn’s defense allowed just 329 yards and 20.7 points per game. It held six SEC foes to 24 or fewer points. Texas A&M got 16, Georgia 20.
The drawback is playing on the road against Tennessee, Georgia, Ole Miss and Alabama. But this team will win more than it lost a year ago.
Verdict: Over
South Carolina (4-8) was ranked as high as No. 10 last year before imploding. A banged up LaNorris Sellers and a dismal offensive line were the main culprits. The Gamecocks had six SEC games with 22 or fewer points.
That shouldn’t happen again with a healthy Sellers.
The defense allowed just 22.1 points per game and features edge rusher Dylan Stewart and two returning starters at linebacker.
Verdict: Over
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The Over/Under win total for Vanderbilt is 5.5
The Commodores won a school-record 10 games last season, led by the bravado of quarterback Diego Pavia.
Vandy will come back down to Earth, but won’t hit the bottom of the Grand Canyon. Running back Sedrick Alexander and receiver Junior Sherrill are solid. True freshman quarterback Jared Curtis could be efficient by the end of the season.
The defense held South Carolina to 7 points and shut down Tennessee in the second half.
Coach Clark Lea has built a program, not a team.
Verdict: Over
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The Over/Under win total for Kentucky, Mississippi State and Arkansas is 4.5
Kentucky (5-7) will win, thanks to the self-confident new coach Will Stein. Well, he didn’t say how many the Wildcats will win.
I googled Stein, and he’s no Curt Cignetti.
The Cats are going with Notre Dame transfer quarterback Kenny Mincey. I have no doubt the offense will be better than it was a year ago when it averaged 23.0 points, but the defense allowed at least 30 points in six games and it will have trouble stopping teams again this year.
Verdict: Under
Mississippi State (5-8) upset then-No. 12 Arizona State, took Tennessee and Texas to overtime, and by two to Florida. So coach Jeff Lebby was close to having a winning record.
Lebby has a good young quarterback in Kamario Taylor, a 677-yard rusher in Fluff Rothwell and a 67-catch receiver in Anthony Evans.
State could get to .500.
Verdict: Over
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Arkansas (2-10) had a chance to beat Ole Miss and Memphis, but fumbled inside the 20 and lost both, taking the heart and soul out of the team. That was evident in a 56-13 home loss to Notre Dame.
New coach Ryan Silverfield had success at Memphis, and he’s bringing in a handful of Tiger transfers.
But a schedule that includes Utah, Georgia, Texas A&M, Tennessee, Missouri, Auburn, Teas and LSU is too daunting.
Verdict: Under.
